Economic conditions are deteriorating quickly with the Covid-19 outbreak causing a sharp drop in economic activity.
- CBRE expects GDP growth will slow to 0.4% in 2020.
- U.S. RevPAR will decline by 37% in 2020, with a contraction of more than 60% in Q2.
- Demand will decline by 28% in 2020; ADRs are expected to decline 11% in 2020.
- The most complex constraint impairing travel comes from social distancing efforts and travel or group gathering restrictions on global populations.
- Properties that primarily cater to discretionary travel will be affected most, i.e. luxury, upper upscale, urban, airport, and resort properties.
CBRE Hotels Research has released a preliminary 2020 forecast that analyzes the impact of the pandemic on hotel performance and provides insight as to how hotels may start to recover in the back half of the year.
CBRE expects GDP growth will slow to 0.4% in 2020, down from our previous estimate of 1.9%. The COVID-19 outbreak will cause a sharp drop in economic activity in Q2. As early as Q3 2020, activity will begin to stabilize and a recovery is expected to be underway by Q4. Employment is already contracting with service sector jobs disappearing as many cities restrict social interaction. Governments throughout the world are implementing monetary and fiscal stimulus to try to prevent a more long-term global recession. Our current expectations are that this stimulus, as well as pent up demand, will lead to a substantial rebound in economic activity in 2021.
About CBRE Hotels
CBRE Group, Inc. (NYSE:CBRE), a Fortune 500 and S&P 500 company headquartered in Los Angeles, is the world’s largest commercial real estate services and investment firm (based on 2018 revenue). The company has more than 90,000 employees (excluding affiliates) and serves real estate investors and occupiers through more than 480 offices (excluding affiliates) worldwide. CBRE offers a broad range of integrated services, including facilities, transaction and project management; property management; investment management; appraisal and valuation; property leasing; strategic consulting; property sales; mortgage services and development services. Please visit our website at www.cbre.com.